In early July 2025, former President Trump signed what he’s proudly calling the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping budget package that hikes the U.S. debt ceiling by about $5 trillion while extending 2017-era tax cuts and deepening cuts to programs like Medicaid and SNAP. It sailed through the Senate by a razor-thin 51–50 vote with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaker, before heading to the House and landing on Trump’s desk by July 4.
To macro crypto traders, this isn’t just another headline. This bill triggers a critical event: the Treasury General Account (TGA), drained to fund government operations earlier this year, is slated to refill by up to $500 billion. Imagine that much cash drained from market circulation—it’s a seismic liquidity removal, and risk assets like Bitcoin tend to feel the tremor.
On one hand, this TGA refill acts like a fiscal vacuum, sucking dollar liquidity out of banks and financial markets. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns this could knock Bitcoin down to the $90K–$95K level before the market finds footing again. On the other hand, the ballooning deficits and swelling Treasury issuance may inject fresh inflation expectations and weaken the dollar—tailwinds that often favor crypto in the medium term.
In this high-stakes tug-of-war, macro crypto traders need clarity more than ever. Will the sharp shock of liquidity withdrawal overpower the inflationary push, nudging BTC south? Or will the debasement narrative and yield-hungry flows flip the script, setting the stage for crypto upside?
This article takes you inside the mechanics of the bill, the monetary plumbing it disturbs, and the real-world market implications. You’ll leave equipped to see through the noise, understand the core drivers, and position ahead of the curve.
What Is the “Big Beautiful Bill”?
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is a sweeping domestic policy package President Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. Clocking in at nearly 900 pages, the legislation combines a major expansion of federal borrowing with sweeping policy changes to tax, social benefits, energy, and national security.
At its core, the bill boosts the debt ceiling by about $5 trillion and enacts $4 trillion in tax cuts, including making key elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. The Congressional Budget Office now projects it will add between $2.8 trillion and $3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade.
Key Provisions
It extends Trump-era individual and corporate tax cuts indefinitely and permanently raises the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, though only temporarily. It creates new deductions for tip and overtime income up to $25,000 and establishes tax breaks for U.S.-assembled auto loan interest. It increases the child tax credit to $2,200 and adds targeted senior benefits. It eliminates key green energy credits under the Inflation Reduction Act and discontinues related funding.
Spending Adjustments
On the spending side, the bill allocates $150 billion more to defense and another $150 billion for immigration enforcement, border wall construction, and rural health supports. But much of the cost is offset by deep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, clean energy programs, and student loan relief—changes expected to strip coverage from tens of millions.
Because of these policy shifts and the massive debt issuance planned, multiple agencies downgraded U.S. credit outlooks. Economists like Larry Summers and Paul Krugman criticized the bill for destabilizing fiscal foundations.
For macro crypto traders, the key takeaway is this: the act locks in future deficits and triggers the need for aggressive Treasury issuance—and that spells seismic shifts for liquidity, bond yields, inflation expectations, and ultimately, digital asset behavior.
Treasury General Account (TGA) Refill: The Liquidity Drain
The Treasury General Account sits at the heart of this storm. It functions as the U.S. government’s checking account at the Federal Reserve—government tax receipts flow in here, and payments to individuals and businesses flow out. Earlier this year, the Treasury drained it to finance government operations amid the debt ceiling standoff. That move injected liquidity into the banking system, temporarily supporting bank reserves and risk assets.
Now that the bill has passed, the Treasury is preparing to refill the TGA back to its normal level of around $850 billion. It currently holds about $350 billion. This means a potential $500 billion liquidity withdrawal from the financial system is underway.
The Treasury will issue large blocks of short-term debt, primarily T-bills, to fund the refill. When investors buy these securities, dollars flow from bank reserves into the government’s Fed account, reducing liquidity available in the banking system. That drains the very fuel risk assets—including crypto—depend on.
Arthur Hayes warns that this dollar liquidity removal could pressure Bitcoin into the $90K–$95K range before it finds support again. This estimate aligns with historical patterns showing that Bitcoin tends to rally when liquidity is rising and contract when liquidity tightens.
The liquidity drain won’t happen overnight but is expected to unfold gradually over the next two quarters. Analysts anticipate bank reserve ratios could fall below 10% of GDP, a significant decline that could increase market fragility.
There are buffers. Money currently parked in the Fed’s reverse repo facility—over $200 billion—might flow back into Treasury purchases, partially offsetting the liquidity loss. The Treasury Department could also slow its issuance pace if market stress escalates. But make no mistake, the base case remains that nearly half a trillion dollars will be vacuumed out of the system, posing a serious challenge for risk assets.
Chain Reaction: From Bond Markets to Crypto
A TGA refill on this scale doesn’t just affect cash balances. It reverberates through the entire financial system, beginning with U.S. Treasury markets. As the government floods the market with new debt, bond prices fall and yields rise. Higher yields tend to attract conservative capital, pulling money away from equities and crypto.
This shift tightens financial conditions. Investors become more cautious, reallocating to safer assets and trimming exposure to volatile positions like Bitcoin. That’s why every previous spike in Treasury supply has been closely watched by macro traders.
Liquidity crunches have also historically sparked liquidation spirals in leveraged crypto markets. Rising yields can force over-leveraged traders to unwind positions, triggering downward momentum.
But the crypto market isn’t just a victim in this chain. It also reacts to what these bond market changes imply. If yields rise because of inflation fears or dollar weakness, Bitcoin and Ethereum may benefit as inflation hedges. On the other hand, if yields rise due to tightening dollar liquidity, crypto assets may decline until markets stabilize.
This nuanced dynamic means the current macro setup presents risk and opportunity in equal measure. Understanding which force—liquidity withdrawal or inflation repricing—dominates will be key to trading successfully in this environment.
Counterbalances: Inflation, Dollar Weakness & Crypto Flows
While the TGA refill threatens to choke dollar liquidity in the short term, several powerful counterforces could balance—or even outweigh—it.
First, the scale of deficit spending baked into the bill adds to long-term inflation risks. With the U.S. projected to run persistent deficits, markets may anticipate future dollar debasement. This can drive up gold and Bitcoin as stores of value.
Second, dollar weakness itself becomes a tailwind for crypto. As Treasury issuance grows and foreign demand for U.S. debt wanes, the greenback could depreciate. That sets the stage for capital to rotate into non-dollar denominated assets—especially digital ones with fixed supply like BTC.
Third, institutional crypto flows remain robust. ETFs now hold over 850,000 BTC, signaling deepening investor commitment. Stablecoin adoption is also accelerating, acting as both an on-ramp and liquidity engine for crypto markets.
Altogether, while the immediate impact of the TGA refill may be negative, the structural backdrop is increasingly crypto-positive. Smart traders will be watching for signs that the inflation and currency debasement narrative starts to outweigh near-term liquidity tightening.
Stablecoin Regulation & the GENIUS Act
One underappreciated development working in crypto’s favor is the GENIUS Act. Passed alongside the broader fiscal bill, this legislation provides a regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins.
The act mandates stablecoin issuers maintain 1:1 reserves in short-duration U.S. Treasuries, undergo independent audits, and meet specific transparency standards. It also establishes a pathway for federal licensing through the OCC and FDIC.
For the crypto ecosystem, this clarity is a major breakthrough. Institutional players have long hesitated to deploy capital into stablecoins due to regulatory uncertainty. With the GENIUS Act in place, stablecoin volume is expected to rise, expanding liquidity and deepening trading pairs across DeFi and centralized exchanges.
Moreover, the act may indirectly support Treasury demand. As stablecoin issuers buy more T-bills to back their tokens, they help absorb some of the supply pressure from the TGA refill. This creates a reinforcing loop: more stablecoin issuance helps fund government debt, and in turn, strengthens infrastructure for crypto capital flows.
Expert Perspectives & Market Sentiment
Experts are split, though the mood is anything but calm.
Arthur Hayes frames the TGA refill as a “buy-the-dip” setup. He expects BTC to slide to $90K–$95K before rebounding into another bull leg as liquidity stabilizes. He’s particularly focused on the role of fiscal inflation, warning that “the real bull run comes not despite deficits, but because of them.”
Meanwhile, legacy macro voices like Larry Summers warn the bill risks structural economic damage, calling it reckless. Others in traditional finance note that while fiscal dominance could be inflationary, the Fed may eventually be forced to hike rates or resume QT, further pressuring liquidity-sensitive markets like crypto.
In crypto circles, the prevailing tone remains cautiously optimistic. Many see the temporary liquidity shock as the price to pay for longer-term bullish fundamentals, including regulatory clarity, tokenized asset flows, and deepening institutional exposure.
What Traders Should Do Next: Tactical Steps
For traders, this isn’t a time to sit back. It’s a moment for precision.
Identify technical levels where value reappears. If Bitcoin dips into the $90K–$95K zone, that aligns with both macro pressure and prior accumulation areas.
Consider scaling in gradually rather than trying to time the exact bottom. Use a dollar-cost averaging approach to manage volatility.
Stay hedged. Stablecoins and short futures can offset downside risk. Monitor funding rates for signs of capitulation or leverage resets.
Follow Treasury auction calendars and TGA refill targets. Markets will likely react around those key issuance windows.
Keep an eye on stablecoin flows. Rising mint activity may signal renewed inflows, while sharp redemptions could indicate liquidity stress.
Above all, remain nimble. This is a dynamic macro environment, and the most adaptable traders will be the most successful.
Longer-Term Outlook
Over the next 12 to 18 months, the crypto landscape could look dramatically different.
Persistent deficits, rising debt levels, and the normalization of Bitcoin ETFs position crypto as a central pillar in the next leg of the monetary cycle. If inflation does not cool as expected, Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge will attract even more institutional allocators.
Stablecoins, now legitimized, may serve as rails for tokenized U.S. Treasuries and real-world assets. That transformation could expand DeFi from a speculative ecosystem to a robust financial services layer.
At the same time, regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act may entice sovereign wealth funds, banks, and insurers to begin engaging with tokenized dollar products—once unimaginable just a few years ago.
The next bull run may not be driven solely by retail hype. It could emerge from fiscal instability, stablecoin scale, and institutional demand converging at the same inflection point.
Final Thoughts
Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” has become a defining moment for macro crypto markets. It kickstarts a massive liquidity drain via TGA refill, challenges dollar stability through aggressive borrowing, and simultaneously unlocks new growth pathways through stablecoin clarity and inflation repricing.
Traders who understand the intersection of fiscal policy, monetary flows, and crypto infrastructure are best positioned to navigate what’s next. The volatility may be intense, but within it lies deep opportunity.
When the noise fades, the trend will be clear. Liquidity may pull back in the short run, but structurally, crypto is being positioned not just as a hedge—but as a pillar of the new monetary world.
